Fx BBQ: Buy low and Sell high with levelled odds

Friday, October 31, 2008

Buy low and Sell high with levelled odds

Buy low and Sell high with the herds
We are influenced by what we see with a tendency to anchor our views on viewable chart prices as normal.. and since we can't see potential continuation prices beyond the current viewable chart area, most of us want to buy the current lows and sell the current highs with the assumption that prices will eventually return to past normal levels..

Stayin' Alive & Level the odds
Under the current strong market bias, longing AUDUSD from the recent .60 lows with or without money management practices expose one to eventual risk of ruin.. a 800 pip windfall in 2 days will only encourage & re-enforce path to future disaster habits..
Learn to be patient & let the market confirm the bias prior to placing bets.. start small & don't be afraid to add up with the bias..
ie. AUD @.68 is still contained within the strong down channel & should only be treated as Sell On Bounce retracement until the market can sustain multiple daily closes above the channel for a potential trend reversal.. over time, the survival odds are stacked for buy low and sell high with the prevailing bias vs indiscriminate buy low and sell high hoping for a reversion to mean..
Don't worry about missing out on all those pips in hindsight as there are always opportunities for the patient mindsets in this never ending game..

AUD Daily
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Getting on the train against the herd
While major trends are only evident in hindsight, there is a highly probable system for getting on an ongoing trend; "Only bet in the same direction when the 21 crosses the 50ma in the daily chart after extended consolidation"..
The only drawback for this simplistic beauty is that one must learn to play against the herd by overcoming the "too cheap/too expensive Fx Fear Syndrome", possess a counter-human trading mindset to sit & wait for the set-up, & don't be afraid to hop on the train once it is pulling out of the station.. ie. Euro breaking the 1.53 long term support levels..

Euro daily
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If the majority are consistent losers playing with a traditional mindset then the minority with an edge must be playing with a contrarian hand..
level the odds, & trade to "Stay Alive"..

1 Comments:

At 4:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello Van Gecko,
I have been ccy trading for five yrs -all the time wondering "When am I going to have the confidence to bet big!". Often times throughtout my life I have intuitions of how things should be but there is no reflection of my sentiment in the larger relational reality.
I have always fumbled the ball shorting. I found the problem in immediate gratification. Slowly I have "sensed" that the right set up but I felt too "out there" in what I had to do.

Your perspicacity has given me the inkling that I may be on the right track here. Your gracious effort to provide the chart sealed the deal.

Thank you for sharing your insight in what is so often a hostile and "in your face" environment where I would have probably given up.

The best to you - sean

 

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